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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister remarked, joking that if the interview proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into his official residence for a follow-up talk next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever time off for prime ministers. Shortly before our chat started, the PM had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to understand exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Starmer seems to have had a degree of a revitalisation. Maybe even just a bit of a rest with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This appeared to have left him in better spirits than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

But are he and his allies being unrealistic if they believe his standing are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the PM is that many of his party members believe he's underperforming at his job. Several of them would rather take a risk and get him out this year.

However Sir Keir was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he insisted he'd be "judged at the poll", insisting nobody would strip his five-year mandate from him – even if the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the fight of our times and I aim to lead us," he said.

The May Elections

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be judged long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – up to a point. But even though he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would step down, should one of his MPs ran against him for the job, should those elections prove disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to explain his low poll ratings by saying the public was reasonably eager for things to change. He sought to assure the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be different.

The economy would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when strategies the government enacted during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He pledged to close asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, although he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a certainty, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western partners were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core argument is that this year the country will "turn the corner".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a bolder approach, with increased political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his points were well-known ones.

Given that he is in considerable political difficulty, should he consider a change of tack?

No government, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its as planned.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not only because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have erred, even in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when comments he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir attributed it to "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting evident political perils as the year gets going. His alliance with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be content with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but we "simply do not have the full picture at the moment".

Critics wanted him to criticise the action before the interview. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also consistently been bubbling tension in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's heading in that direction, but his new specific plan to align more closely with the EU's single market – the vast economic European market – will probably elicit accusations that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the results that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his backbenches, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to