A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
